This is a weak market. The resistance levels are very strong. The support near 3500 was a temporary support level.
市场目前非常弱，阻力位很坚固。3500点附近的支撑位只是一个暂时的支撑位。
The market is worried that bad news will continue to develop so traders and investors are capturing short term profits. This selling adds to the downward pressure in the market.
市场正担心利空消息将继续发展，所以交易者们和投资者们都在使短期收益变现。这种出货加剧了市场下跌趋势的压力。
This trader and investor behaviour is analysed using the GMMA. When the short term traders developed the rally in April the long term GMMA remained well separated. This suggests many investors did not believe the rally could develop into a new long term uptrend so they used the rally as an opportunity to sell and capture small profits.
这种交易者和投资者行为可利用顾比复合移动平均线进行分析。当四月短线交易者们使反弹形成的时候，顾比复合移动平均线长期组分离程度仍然比较大。这表明许多投资者不相信反弹会发展成一次新的长期上升趋势，所以他们利用这次反弹作为出货的机会并获得有限的利润。
We know the investors support a new trend when we see the long term GMMA compress as the rally develops in the short term GMMA group of averages. When a long term downtrend ends we expect to see a pattern of rally, retreat, and a new rally.
当我们看到顾比复合移动平均线长期组压缩、顾比复合移动平均线短期组平均值开始反弹的时候，我们就知道投资者们支持一次新的趋势。当一次长期下降趋势结束的时候，我们期待看到的形态是反弹、回撤和新的反弹。
There is a high probability the market will retest support near 3000 to 3300. This test could include a very rapid fall to this level, followed by a fast rebound from the support level. The first most important feature is the strength of the support area. A move below 3000 is very bearish.
大盘将对3000点和3300点之间的支撑位进行再次测试的可能性很大。这种测试可能包括一次朝着这个区位的非常迅速的下跌，随后从这个支撑位快速反弹。第一个最重要的特征是支撑区域的强度。运行到3000点之下是非常不乐观的。
The second important feature is the character of the rally rebound from support. When a trend change develops the second rally rebound is more successful in breaking above the upper edge of the long term GMMA. This is the first indication of a successful trend change development. This feature is seen in several markets including Hong Kong, Singapore and Korea. Traders use these markets as a model to understand the development of the new trend in the Shanghai market.
第二个重要特征是从支撑位而来的反弹的特征。当一次趋势变化形成的时候，第二次反弹将更成功地突破到顾比复合移动平均线长期组上边缘之上。这是一次成功的趋势改变形成的第一个标志。这一特征在包括香港、新加坡和韩国在内的几个市场中都已出现。交易者们利用这些市场作为理解沪市新趋势发展的例子。
Traders look for these features to confirm the development of a strong new uptrend.
交易者们寻找以下这些特征确定一次新的有力的上升趋势的形成。
· The short term GMMA penetrates above the long term GMMA.
· The long term GMMA compresses. This indicates investors are becoming buyers in the market.
· The long term GMMA turns upwards and begins to separate. This indicates investors are becoming aggressive buyers in the market.
· The short term GMMA moves above the long term GMMA and uses the upper edge of the long term GMMA as a rebound support area.
· 顾比复合移动平均线短期组穿透到顾比复合移动平均线长期组之上。
· 顾比复合移动平均线长期组开始压缩。这表明投资者们正在变成市场中的买方。
· 顾比复合移动平均线长期组转为上升趋势并开始发散。这表明投资者们正变为市场中强有力的买方。
· 顾比复合移动平均线短期组运行到顾比复合移动平均线长期组之上并将顾比复合移动平均线长期组上边缘作为一个反弹的支撑区域。
It will take several months for the complete new uptrend to develop. This trend development continues to include some fast rallies and some strong retreats. In the immature stage of the trend development the resistance features are most important. Resistance is near 3750 at the upper edge of the long term GMMA group of averages.
新趋势完全形成需要几个月的时间。这次趋势发展过程继续包含几次迅速的反弹和几次强力回撤。在趋势未完全形成的阶段，阻力特征是最重要的。阻力位在顾比复合移动平均线长期组平均值上边缘接近3750点处。