Prepared by Daryl Guppy
戴若·顾比

The behaviour of gold is closely related to the fall in the value of the American dollar. However the uptrend in gold is moving differently from the movements in the American dollar. This uptrend is defined by a trading band and this band is most easily seen on a weekly New York Mercantile Exchange gold chart.
    黄金价格的行为与美元价值下降密切相关。但是黄金价格的上升趋势与美元的运行轨迹不同。这次上升趋势是由一个价格浮动区间即交易带决定的，这个交易带在纽约商业交易所的黄金周线图上可以清楚地看到。

Gold shows consistent trending behaviour. The trend is defined using two methods on the weekly chart. The first is the Guppy Multiple Moving Average. This shows strong investor buying and support for the up trend. The long term group has remained well separated since the uptrend accelerated in 2005 August. This trend strength is confirmed by the behaviour of the short term GMMA group of averages. Short term retreats in the gold price have not resulted in the short term GMMA dropping below the long term GMMA. This shows very strong underlying trend support.
    黄金价格呈现出一致的趋势行为。这个趋势可以在周线图上通过两种方法来确定。第一种方法是顾比复合移动平均线。它显示出投资者的强力买入和对上升趋势的支撑。顾比复合移动平均线长期组从2005年8月上升趋势加速以来一直保持充分分离的状态。这一趋势的强度由顾比复合移动平均线短期组的行为确定。黄金价格短期组的回撤还没有达到顾比复合移动平均线短期组跌破长期组的情况。这表明存在非常强的潜在趋势支撑。

The trend is also defined by three trend lines. Trend line A is the long term trend. Trend line B and Trend line C define the trend oscillation around trend line A. This is not an exact measure, but it has been a useful method to define the trending support and resistance levels.
    这一趋势同时由其它三条趋势线确定。趋势线A是长期趋势。趋势线B和趋势线C决定了趋势围绕趋势线A上下浮动的区域。这不是一个准确的方法，但是它已成为一个确定趋势支撑位和阻力位的有用方法。

The three main support levels are defined by consolidation periods in the trend rise. The support levels are located at $690.00, $780.00 and $840.00. In this strong trending market, these are used as a guide for support. The lower edge of the long term GMMA is a more useful measure of trend strength and potential rebound points.
    三个主要的支撑位是由趋势上升过程中的盘整区域决定的。支撑位位于690.00美元, 780.00美元和840.00美元处。在这个强趋势市场中，这被用来作为支撑位的指南。顾比复合移动平均线长期组下边缘是一个更加有用的度量趋势强度和潜在反弹点的方法。

Gold has an important psychological aspect and this is reflected in the developing chart pattern. Gold has a low probability potential to develop a head and shoulder pattern. This pattern development is confirmed with a rally towards the value of trend line C at $970.00 to $980.00, followed by a retreat to below $860.00. This would develop a head and shoulder pattern with a downside projection target near long term support at $660.00
    黄金价格受心理因素影响很大，这在发展中的图形形态上得以体现。黄金价格有微小可能形成头肩顶形态。这个形态的形成决定于向着970.00美元到980.00美元处趋势线C的反弹，随后回撤到860.00美元以下。这可能形成一个头肩顶形态，其下方投射目标位在长期支撑位附近的660.00美元处。

The high probability outcome is a continuation of the uptrend with prices clustering near the value of trend line C. This gives a target value of $1000.00. There is a high probability price will continue to trend strongly upwards, moving in the trading band between trend line a and trend line C. A small resistance and support level is developing near $940, and this will be important in the future when price moves above $1000. This support will be confirmed when the value of trend line B is also above $940.
    很有可能出现的结果是上升趋势将继续，其间，价格在趋势线C的位置附近上下反复。这给出了1000.00美元的价格目标数值。价格继续强力上升的趋势并在趋势线A和趋势线C之间的价格交易带内运行的可能性很大。在940.00美元附近一个小的阻力位和支撑位正在形成，这在将来价格运行到1000.00美元以上时将非常重要。这一支撑位将在趋势线B的数值也运行到940.00美元以上时形成。

This strong trend has its own characteristics and traders must understand this behaviour. The trend is influenced by American dollar weakness, but this is not the most important feature of the trend. In the next season the price target for gold is between $1000.00 and $1150.00.
    这一强力趋势有其自己的特点，交易者们必须理解这一行为。此趋势受到美元走弱的影响，但是这并不是此趋势最重要的特征。在下一个时期，黄金价格的目标位位于1000.00美元到1150.00美元之间。