Prepared by Daryl Guppy
戴若·顾比

The pattern of index behaviour shows downtrend continuation but it also shows evidence that the momentum of the downtrend is weakening. A weaker downtrend is necessary before any new uptrend can develop.
    指数行为的形态表明下降趋势仍在继续，但是它也表现出一些下降趋势动量正在减弱的征兆。在任何新的上升趋势形成之前下降趋势减弱是必要的。

These features show the momentum of the downtrend is weakening.
    以下特征表明下降趋势的动量正在减弱：
· Support near 3300 has been successful. The index has not touched this level. The index has consolidated near the level and this shows a decline in down momentum.
· The long term GMMA group of averages has not expanded. In April the long term GMMA was continuing to expand and this indicated strong downtrend momentum. Now the long term GMMA has compressed and become narrower. This indicates a decline in the strength of the downtrend momentum.
· The separation between the short term GMMA and the long term GMMA has remained very small. This confirms a reduction in downtrend momentum. Traders are more optimistic. When price falls, they enter the market more quickly as buyers because they are developing more confidence about the future.
· 3300点附近的支撑位成功地发挥了作用。指数还没有触及这个区位。指数在这个区位附近盘整，这表明下降趋势的动量在减弱。
· 顾比复合移动平均线长期组还没有扩散。顾比复合移动平均线在四月曾连续扩散，这表明下降趋势的动量很强。现在，顾比复合移动平均线长期组已经收缩并变得更窄。这表示下降趋势动量的强度正在减弱。
· 顾比复合移动平均线短期组和长期组之间的分离程度仍然很小。这更确定了下降趋势的动量正在减弱。交易者们更加乐观了。当价格下跌的时候，他们更快地作为买方入市，因为他们对未来的信心正在增加。

All of these features support the conclusion that the downtrend momentum is slowing. The development of a new uptrend faces many resistance barriers. The most important of these is the resistance level near 3600. The index did move above this level in April, but the breakout was weak. The breakout was also limited by the value of the upper edge of the long term GMMA.
    所有这些特征都支持了下降趋势的动量正在减慢这一结论。新的上升趋势的发展面临着许多阻力障碍。其中最重要的就是3600点附近的阻力位。指数在四月确实曾经运行到这个区位以上，但是突破的力量很弱。突破也受到了顾比复合移动平均线长期组上边缘数值的制约。

Using the current degree of GMMA slope, the value of the long term GMMA will be near 3600 in the third week of June. This will develop a resistance barrier that combines the horizontal resistance level at 3600 with the upper value of the long term GMMA. This is a strong resistance barrier. A successful move above this level will be very bullish. When the index moves above this combined resistance level, there is not any resistance above this until near 4300. This suggests that a breakout above this combined level could lead to a very fast and strong trend rally towards 4300.
    利用目前顾比复合移动平均线的倾斜度可以知道顾比复合移动平均线长期组的数值将在六月的第三周达到3600点附近。这将会形成一个阻力障碍，使得3600点处的水平阻力位与顾比复合移动平均线长期组的上边缘值相一致。这是一个很强的阻力障碍。指数运行至这一区位之上将非常看多。当指数运行到这个联合的阻力位以上时，在4300点附近以下将不会遇到任何阻力。这表明当指数突破到这个联合阻力位以上的时候，可能迎来一次迅速并有力的向着4300点的趋势反弹。

Traders will continue to watch for evidence of a developing trend rebound. The first development of this will be a rebound from near 3300. The short term GMMA will move up and penetrate the long term GMMA. A strong trend rebound will also develop a rapid compression in the long term GMMA. This is the most important signal because it shows investors are becoming buyers and supporting the new up trend momentum.
    交易者们将继续寻找趋势反弹正在形成的证据。其中第一个就是从3300点附近而来的反弹。顾比复合移动平均线短期组将向上运行并穿透顾比复合移动平均线长期组。一次有力的趋势反弹也将使顾比复合移动平均线长期组迅速压缩。这是最重要的信号，因为这表明交易者们正在变为买方，并正在支持新一轮上升趋势的动量。

The behaviour of the market near support levels is critical. Traders watch for confirmation the support area is strong.
    市场在支撑位附近的行为非常关键。交易者们应寻找能确定支撑区域力量很强的证据。