Where is the immediate, or near term, shortage of oil? There has been no significant change in the fundamentals of supply and nor has there been a dramatic unexpected increase in demand. Despite this we have seen a continuous strong rising trend in many commodity markets. This disconnection between price and fundamentals is a bubble.
    石油价格的即 期，或者说近期弱点在哪里？石油的供给状况没有明显的改变，需求也没有出现戏剧性的、出乎意料的增长。尽管如此，我们已经在诸多商品市场中看到了一个连续的强有力的上升趋势。这种价格和定价基础的脱节是泡沫的表现。

When we analyse the NYMEX (New York Mercantile Exchange) Crude Oil chart we use current price activity to project the potential target levels. We also need to look at the potential pullback levels in the current parabolic trend and for how the trend changes. When parabolic bubbles collapse they ignore support levels.
    当我们分析纽约商品期货交易所原油价格走势图时，我们利用当前价格的活动投射得到潜在的目标位。我们也需要观察当前抛物线趋势中潜在的回撤区位并找出趋势是如何变化的。当抛物线泡沫破灭的时候它们不会管支撑位在哪里。

The most important feature on the current weekly oil chart is the development of a parabolic trend. The trend is defined by a specific type of exponential acceleration in the market. The two most important features of this trend are first, a known calculated date for the end of the trend, and second, the way the trend collapses.
    在目前原油价格周线图上最重要的特征是抛物线趋势的形成。这一趋势在市场中由一个特殊形式的指数加速度表现出来。这一趋势的两个最重要的特征，第一个是为趋势的结束提供了一个已知的预计日期；第二个是提示了趋势瓦解的方式。

When the parabolic curve moves towards vertical it sets the maximum date for the end of the trend. The trend may end earlier, but it has a low probability of continuing beyond the calculated date. As price continues to rise it also moves to the right on the chart as each new price candle is added. A move to the right of the parabolic trend line is an exit signal.
   当此抛物线运行到接近垂直状态时，它就到达了趋势结束的最后期限。此趋势可能结束的更早，但是在预计的日期之后趋势还持续的可能性很小。随着价格继续上升，每增加一条新的蜡烛线，价格也在图中向右运行一点。运行到抛物线形的趋势线右边是该趋势结束的信号。

When these trend collapse, they collapse rapidly. They are a classic bubble situation. The upside targets, and the downside targets, are established by applying the standard trend and trading analysis to the oil market.
    当趋势瓦解的时候，它们瓦解的速度非常快。这是典型的泡沫形态。上方目标位和下方目标位都可以利用标准趋势和对石油市场的交易分析得以确定。

Oil moves in a tightly defined range bound pattern. Breakouts from these consolidation patterns are sometimes rapid, but they have a consistent behaviour. The breakout from $113 had an upside target of $126. The move above this has a projected target of $140. Using the same trading band projection methods, the next upside target is $152. This type of trading behaviour can lift price to an upper resistance level near $163.
    油价在一个严格的窄幅震荡形态内运行。从这些盘整形态中突破有时是很快的，但是它们有着一致的行为。从113美元处的突破其上方目标位在126美元处。运行到此区位以上时新的投射目标位在140美元处。利用相同的交易带投射方法，下一个上方目标位在152美元处。这一类型的交易行为可以将价格抬高到163美元附近的更高的阻力位。

The recent trend rise has seen very rapid moves above each resistance level. In the short term this creates very fast rising trend. In the longer term when the parabolic trend line collapses, it allows for a faster decline in prices because support levels are not strong.
   最近的趋势上升迅速的运行到每个阻力位之上。在短期内这形成了非常快速的上升趋势。在长期当抛物线趋势瓦解的时候，由于支撑位不够坚固，它可能形成一次快速的价格下跌。

A move below the parabolic trend line with oil near $140 finds weak support near $127, and stronger support near $110 to $113. The strongest support remains near the psychologically important $100 level. This is also the upper edge of a longer term consolidation band, and also inside the long term group of Guppy Multiple Moving Averages .

    当油价接近140美元并在抛物线形趋势线之下运行时，它将在127美元处找到一个微弱的支撑，并且在110美元和113美元附近找到有较为坚固的支撑。这也是长期盘整带的上边缘所处的位置，并且位于顾比复合移动平均线长期组之内。