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HANG SENG INDEX HONG KONG 香港恒生指数
[] 来源: 2008-06-30 10:42
Prepared by Daryl Guppy
戴若·顾比

The Hong Kong Hang Seng index chart is dominated by trading bands. These bands provide resistance points for up trends and support for downtrends. The influences the way trends develop and adds new resistance levels.
    香港恒生指数图以交易带为主导。这些带给上升趋势带来了阻力点,并为下降趋势提供了支撑。这影响了趋势发展的方式,并增加了新的阻力位。

The analysis starts with the support/resistance line at 23500 and the support level at 21000. The 23,500 level provided significant resistance in 2007. The 21000 level is a support rebound level in 2008, March and a strong resistance level several times in 2007. These two levels create a trading band.
    分析以位于23500点的支撑阻力线和位于21000点的支撑为开始。23500点的位置在2007年提供了重要的阻力。21000点的位置在2008年3月是一个支撑反弹的位置,在2007年几次成为强阻力位。这两个位置产生一个交易带。

The upper target for a successful breakout above 23500 is calculated by using the width of the trading band between 21000 and 23500. This gives an upside target of 26100. This was achieved when the Hang Seng developed a breakout in 2008 March. This was a strong resistance level and the market retreated from this level. Support at 23500 was weak. The index fell quickly though this level. Recently it has tested 23500 several times as a resistance level.
    成功突破23500点的上方目标使用21000点到23500之间的交易带的宽度进行计算,这给出了26100点的上方目标。当恒生指数在2008年3月形成突破时,这一点被达到。这是一个强阻力位,市场从这一位置回落。位于23500点的支撑是弱的。指数快速跌破这一位置。最近指数对23500点作为阻力进行了几次试探。

The lower level of the trading band is a now a support level at 21000. The strong downward pressure is shown by the Guppy Multiple Moving Average relationships. The short term group of averages has separated and moved below the long term group of averages. This shows increasing downward trend strength. This suggests the market can retest the 21000 level.
    交易带的下轨现在是位于21000点的支撑位。强劲的下降趋势压力由顾比复合移动平均线的关系显示出来。短期组均线已经分离,并运行至长期组均线以下。这显示出下降趋势的力量增强。这表明市场可能会试探21000点的位置。

A failure of support at 21000 sets the next downside target near 18500. This is calculated by measuring the width of the trading band and projecting it below support at 21000. This target is slightly lower than the support level created in 2006 and 2007, March. This suggests any market fall below 2100 has a higher probability of finding support near 18500.
    位于21000点的支撑的失败会将下方目标设在18500点附近。这是通过衡量交易带的宽度,并将它在21000点的支撑向下投射可以计算出来目标。这个目标略低于2006年和2007年3月产生的支撑位置。这表明市场下跌至21000点以下则更有可能在18500点附近获得支撑。

The support level near 21000 has the potential to develop a double bottom trend reversal pattern. The upside target for this pattern is 26100. Any rebound from support will find some resistance near 23500.
    21000点附近的支撑有可能形成一个双重底趋势反转形态。这个形态的上方目标是26100点。从支撑开始的任何反弹将在23500点附近遭遇阻力。

A bullish outlook for the Hang Seng starts with a successful retest of support at 21000 followed by a rally to 23500 and the potential development of a new uptrend with a target near 26100. A bearish outlook starts with a failure of support at 21000 and a retest of long term support near 18500.
    恒生指数看多的前景以再次成功试探21000点的支撑并随后展开反弹至23500点而开始,这有可能形成一个新的上升趋势,目标在26100点附近。看空的前景以21000点支撑失败并再次试探18500点附近的长期支撑而开始。

Traders plan for rally style trading. They do not plan for the rapid development of a new long term up trend. Cautious traders will wait for proof that support is successful near 21000.
    交易者做好反弹方式交易的计划。他们不会预期新的长期上升趋势会迅速形成。谨慎的交易者将等待21000点附近支撑成功的证据。


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