The market dipped below support at 2600 and then rebounded. Many traders think this is a bullish signal and we may see a short term rally develop. The 2600 level is an important support level. This support level developed in January and February 2007. It is a weak support level. The 2600 level is important because it helps to define the trading consolidation band that developed in 2007 between 2600 and 3000. The boundaries of this consolidation band are not exact.   

    大盘下探到2600点支撑位之下然后反弹。许多交易者认为这是看涨的信号，并且我们可能会迎来一轮短期反弹。2600点这个区位是一个重要的支撑位。这个支撑位形成于2007年1月和2月。这是一个不太坚固的支撑位。2600点这个区位之所以重要是因为它对于确定2007年形成的2006点到3000点之间的交易盘整带有所帮助。这一盘整带的界限还不明确。

This means the index can dip below 2600 and then rebound back upwards into the consolidation band area. Traders will watch the behaviour of the market very carefully in the next several weeks to confirm the consolidation band has a strong influence on the market.
    这意味着指数可能下探到2600点以下继而反弹回到盘整带区域之内。交易者们在接下来的几周里应密切关注大盘的行为来确定盘整带对于大盘的巨大影响。

The sub-prime crisis created by the Americans has contaminated global markets. We must consider the effect of this American contamination on the Shanghai Index. This increases the downward pressure and makes it more difficult for the Shanghai market to easily find strong support. 
    美国产生的次贷危机使全球股市都蒙上阴影。我们必须考虑美国次贷危机对上证指数的不利影响。这增加了股市的下跌压力并且使得沪市找到坚固的支撑位变得更难了。

A long downtrend usually ends slowly. The pattern for a reversal of the downtrend can take several shapes. They are:
    一次长期下降趋势通常结束得很慢。下降趋势中的反转形态可能有几种形式。它们是：
· A test and rebound from a well defined support level. This may develop near 2600 support.
· A fan trend line breakout. The fan pattern is created by several trend lines. The Shanghai Index has this behaviour in the past.
    · 对一个非常明确的支撑位进行测试并从此支撑位处反弹。这可能在2600点附近这个支撑位处出现。
    · 扇形趋势线突破。扇形形态由若干条趋势线构成。上证指数之前已经表现出这种形态特征。

The fan pattern develops from a single high point in the market. When the market moves above the first downtrend line, the rally quickly stops and then develops a new downtrend. This new downtrend line becomes a resistance level. In the future when the market moves above this line its acts as a support level. The new breakout is defined with a new resistance trend line. This pattern is repeated with each new breakout and develops a fan pattern of trend lines. The fan pattern is an early warning the market is developing a long term trend reversal.
    扇形形态从指数的一个高点开始形成。当指数运行到第一条下降趋势线以上的时候，反弹迅速停止然后形成一轮新的下降趋势。这条新的下降趋势线变成一个阻力位。将来当指数运行到这条线以上的时候，它又发挥支撑位的作用。新的突破受到新的阻力趋势线的限制。这种形态随着每次突破而重复，并形成扇形趋势线。扇形形态是大盘形成长期趋势反转的早期预警信号。

The peak for the start of the fan reversal pattern is the high in 2008 January near 5520. This is trend line 1. In a fan pattern, the trend line is drawn along the upper edge of the price activity. It acts as a resistance level. The rally breakout in 2008 May set a new high point. The slope of the market fall starting in May is now defined by trend line 2. This is the new resistance level. A move above trend line 2 will develop another small rally, followed by a new downtrend. This would be defined with a new trend line 3. The first section of a fan pattern is developing but it is too early to know if this pattern will develop successfully. This pattern may take 2 or 6 months to develop.
    扇形反转形态开始形成的高点位于2008年1月出现的5520点这个高点附近。这是趋势线1。在一个扇形形态中，趋势线沿着价格活动区域的上边缘延伸。它作为一个阻力位发挥作用。2008年5月出现的反弹突破形成一个新的高点。5月开始的股市下跌的倾斜度现在正受到趋势线2的限定。这是一个新的阻力位。运行到趋势线2以上将形成另一轮小型反弹，随后是一轮新的下降趋势。这将受到新的趋势线3的限定。扇形形态的第一阶段正在形成，但是现在想知道这一形态能否成功地形成还为时过早。这一形态的形成可能需要花费2到6个月的时间。